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Queensland will embrace the home comforts of a packed-out Suncorp Stadium tonight as they aim to repeat history and shut down NSW’s efforts in Origin Game III. Billy Slater and his squad are chasing their third consecutive series win, while Michael Maguire’s Blues seek to break the curse and reclaim the shield in a Brisbane decider for the first time since 2005.
To an extent history does tell a story – you need to look no further than your betting platform of choice – and facts are facts, it’s been a bloody long time since the Blues have won a decider in the Sunshine State.
We can spend as long as we want trawling over the numbers like we’re Random Stats Guy – but at the end of the day – it isn’t just about what’s happening on paper.
An Origin series isn’t won or lost in the comment section of your favourite NRL tragic’s page or your least liked journo’s column. You’ll find just as many reasons why the Blues are the underdogs as you will arguments for Queensland being the real dark horse side.
Whichever side of the border you sit—whether you think New South Welshmen ‘don’t get Origin’, or that Queenslanders are living in ‘glasshouses’—we can agree that the stage is set for a battle of epic proportions.
This year feels different to me. It seems like it’s been a few years since we’ve truly felt that hatred that Origin so beautifully fosters—that classic mate vs mate, state vs state rivalry. Once you pull on an Origin jersey, everything else goes out the door.
Bradman Best and Dane Gagai aren’t standing shoulder-to-shoulder as teammates in the centres for Newcastle; instead, they’re head-to-head across opposition lines, exploiting the weaknesses they’ve learned from training and playing together. It’s Origin – and it’s fantastic.
That aggression—the Blues brought it in spades in Game II. A key custodian of this intensity was the fiery centre, Latrell Mitchell. However, with a Lisfranc injury ruling him out of Game III, Best has been chosen for the job. Best beat out a menu of potential centres, including the sent-off Joseph Sua’ali’i and the injury-returning Tom Trbojevic, under the expectation that he will replicate his impressive performance from Game III last year, where the young centre put on two tries in his NSW debut.
Along with Best, Madge has added only one new player to his Game II winning squad: Warriors workhorse forward Mitch Barnett, who replaces interchange forward Haumole Olakau’atu.
It’s a shame for the Manly enforcer who drops to reserves. Playing alongside red-hot Angus Crichton and Liam Martin, Madge wasn’t quite able to utilise Olakau’atu in Games I and II. He’s been playing some great footy for the beaches, but it seems as though Madge wants a bit more coverage in the middle with an effort-based no-frills player like Barnett.
And his efforts have not gone unnoticed.
Barnett was originally named as a member of the extended squad for the first two games. He flew to Australia to join the Blues camp, missing the birth of his second son, Zane, who was born six days before this year’s Origin opener – a game he didn’t even play in.
“The commitment he has shown of what the jersey means to him, chatting to Mitch it is pretty exciting to be able to debut someone like that,” Maguire said after announcing the side last Monday.
As I mentioned, Queensland has recalled 22-game veteran Gagai as well as his Knights teammate Kalyn Ponga, both set to play their first game since the 2022 decider. Gagai in Origin is just a different beast. His recall is a feel-good story too after being overlooked for the entire 2023 series. The 33-year-old is one of those players who truly knows how to elevate his game on the representative stage and looks to be no different slotting into the centres for the Maroons.
Ponga has played just one NRL game since returning from a Lisfranc injury, yet Slater recognises the x-factor the 2023 Dally M Medallist can bring. Named on the bench, Ponga is poised for his first Origin appearance since his standout performance in the 2022 series decider, where he ran for 247 metres, scored a try, and broke 15 tackles. This time, his role will be notably different, and it will be interesting to see how Slater plans to utilise him in the interchange.
Broncos’ outside back Selwyn Cobbo returns after being rested for Game II and moves into the centres while Valentine Holmes shifts to the wing to replace Murray Taulagi (hamstring).
Warriors back-rower Kurt Capewell joins the starting lineup, replacing Jaydn Su’A – a controversial decision for many wondering how David Fifita’s name got lost among the mix. There have been suggestions that Titans’ heavy hitter lacks the effort plays and work rate required to make an impact on the Origin stage, but his numbers tell a different story – particularly when compared to the players selected in front of him. Fifita is one of the game’s hardest ballrunners and is defensively capable of featuring in the middle of the park, but this isn’t to discredit Capewell’s abilities. Whatever it may be, it is certain that for coach Slater, there are elements to Fifita’s game that aren’t Game III ready.
Both sides will need to bring the heat for the full 80 minutes. While a united front is essential, it will be the critical match-ups that tip the scales. In those intense pockets of play, the game could go either way, particularly in the halves.
Mitch Moses faces the biggest challenge of his career. For a playmaker, it really doesn’t get any tougher than this. The hostility and noise at Suncorp Stadium will be unlike anything the Parramatta half has experienced before. Amid it all, he must control his emotions and lead his team, a daunting task given the adrenaline and uproar – far from Goldilocks conditions.
Moses has the chance to become just the third Blues halfback to win an Origin decider in Brisbane, joining legends Andrew Johns and Ricky Stuart. Eight Blues halfbacks have played in 13 deciders in Brisbane, with the only NSW victories in 1994 and 2005. Moses’ kicking game will be crucial in the decider, putting him on par with Nathan Cleary, Adam Reynolds, his uncle Benny Elias who was part of the Blues team that won the 1994 decider in Brisbane – and of course Queensland rival Daly Cherry-Evans
In contrast, for Cherry-Evans, it’s just another day at the office. DCE excels in Origin football with his reactive style, perfectly suited to the game’s fast pace. Expect him to use Queensland’s go-to strategy under pressure: kick early, kick long, chase hard, and pin the Blues on their try line, shifting the game’s momentum.
It’s hard to talk about Origin and truly eliminate all bias – but as a proud New South Welshman, I have to say I feel good this year.
Regardless of the hallowed turf that is Lang Park, what’ll drive Madge’s boys home is an aggression that we haven’t seen in Billy’s side so far. Granted, Mitchell’s absence will make a dent in this department, but the Blues will be sure to lift accordingly. It’s a fast track seemingly tailored to the Maroons’ playing style – but I don’t doubt that NSW can adapt their game.
As for the ground conditions, it’s expected to be a dry one for the decider, with only a five percent chance of rain in Brisbane and a top of 19 degrees. Winds of up to 20 km/h are forecast for the evening, while it is also expected to be partly cloudy with just a five percent chance of rain throughout the day.
Whether your beverage of choice is XXXX or Tooheys, make sure that you’re in the vicinity of a screen at 8:05pm this evening for the big dance. And if you’ve got an extra 20 minutes handy, I recommend going down the rabbit hole of Gus Gould’s Origin Final Words – haunting stuff.
Go the Blues.
MY PREDICTIONS
Blues by 10
Man of the Match: Angus Crichton
