With more than eighty countries having held elections, 2024 was the “Year of Democracy”, confronting pluralist politics with its “biggest test” as its already battered ideals were tried over and over. While clear trends emerged – global sentiments of anti-incumbency, the emboldening of election challengers – perhaps the most salient of these was a broad swing to the right. From Nigel Farage securing his first parliamentary seat in the UK (on his eighth attempt) to the reaffirmation of Narendra Modi’s dominance in India, conservative and populist parties consistently won votes and gained popularity.
America’s elections in November cemented and epitomised this reality. Though Donald Trump’s return to the White House stole headlines, it was the Republican Party’s achievement of majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate that marked America’s rightward swing, pointing to not only Trump’s enduring appeal but a genuine want for political change and disillusionment with the left. The recent German elections, where the country’s centre-right bloc and far-right AfD party beat the once-dominant Social Democrats, have indicated that this trend will continue into 2025.
With our federal elections fast approaching, and Labour’s hold on power increasingly tenuous, whether Australia will similarly move rightward and what form such a swing would take are material questions. Though conservatism and populism are on the rise, the right is not monolithic, as was illuminated earlier this year when MAGA was rattled by a clash between Elon Musk’s ‘Tech Right’ and ‘America First’ Republicans over calls for increased skilled immigration. To understand these emerging divisions, it’s useful to compare two ascendant leaders who embody some of the warring impulses that are sculpting this moment.
First, take Javier Milei, Argentina’s president since 2023. As a self-described anarcho-capitalist with a quintet of cloned dogs (all named after economists, of course), Milei embodies the modern libertarian spirit. The start of his presidency has focused on resuscitating an Argentine economy plagued by recession, instability and inflation through the introduction of sweeping austerity measures – from the cutting of 20% of government jobs to reductions in state fuel subsidies. Milei has also embarked on a campaign to privatise and deregulate various national sectors and industries. So far, he has enjoyed significant success, ending Argentina’s 123-year-long deficit while bringing inflation to a three-year low.
However, Milei’s generally laissez-faire approach hasn’t been uncontroversial. Environmental and anti-poverty groups have raised concerns over the consequences of lightening the hand of the state. More recently, Milei has faced impeachment calls for fraud after he endorsed a cryptocurrency on X to “boost” the Argentinian economy which, soon after, collapsed.
Altogether, Milei upholds established libertarian ideals, such as those of America’s Tea Party Movement, as he champions small government and free markets but his embrace of modernity – from crypto to cloning – aligns him with the likes of Musk, positioning Milei as a torchbearer for the audacious, futurist ‘Techno Right’.
Alternatively, there’s Viktor Orban, the Prime Minister of Hungary. While Milei is generally set on shrinking the government, Orban, over his fifteen years in office, has sought to expand its presence, using it as a platform to promote “Christian values” through what he has termed “illiberal democracy”.
Orban’s brand of conservative politics places greater emphasis on identity and society, aligning him with populist figures like Steve Banon and J. D. Vance. Most notably, Orban has championed pro-natalist and ‘Family First’ policies – from student loan forgiveness and tax exemptions to restricting abortion access – while discouraging immigration and, at times, propagating the great replacement theory. Strikingly, he has also exercised authority over the nation’s education system, altering curricula to promote Christian and nationalist sentiments while appointing religious leaders and conservatives to head universities and schools.
Orban’s illiberalism has been reflected in his broad crackdowns on press and judicial freedoms, staunch opposition to LGBTQ rights, and close ties to Putin’s Russia. On the economy, Orban’s approach starkly contrasts Milei’s as he has repeatedly increased government spending and taxation to boost his own popularity. In 2022, his spending spree – aimed at securing an election victory – when coupled with the Russian invasion of Ukraine saw Hungary suffer the worst surge in inflation within Europe and the nation’s economic growth fall well below government targets.
Overall, Milei and Orban personify the new factions emerging in conservative politics. Though they occupy the same end of the political horseshoe, their views on the role of government and what it means to be “right-wing” are often at odds, Milei’s freewheeling libertarianism diverging from Orban’s model of an invasive and illiberal state. The conflict between MAGA Republicans earlier this year signalled that tensions are brewing between these blocs as an ascendant global right frames its agenda. The balance it strikes will fundamentally shape our century.
Looking to Australia’s upcoming elections, it is yet unclear with whom our conservative parties will align; whether they will be emboldened by the successes of other staunch populists or opt for moderate approaches. While the Liberals remain, comparatively, centrist, Clive Palmer’s ‘Trumpet of Patriots’ party is already attempting to weave together a platform of both Musk-ovite “efficiency” and identitarianism. Though neither a Milei nor an Orban is likely to spring up from our uniquely temperate political environment, what shade of red the Australian right chooses to don will have ramifications not only for this election but Australia’s future and its place in a rapidly evolving world.